A new analysis of government data from online loan marketplace LendingTree shows that business owners in New Mexico are some of the most optimistic in the nation when it comes to potentially hiring new workers. Matt Schultz, Chief Consumer Finance Analyst at LendingTree, joined KSFR by phone with more details.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity.
KSFR: Can you start by giving an overview of the findings in this report?
Matt Schulz: We found a general sense of optimism when it came to businesses hiring over the next six months. This was taken in September, so a few months back, but it's still instructive. We saw about 15 percent of businesses say that they expect to increase their number of employees over the next six months, about 10 percent saying that they expect to decrease, and about three out of four businesses saying that they expect things to remain the same. But New Mexico was one of the more optimistic states that we saw.
How do those nationwide numbers that you found square with the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
It's always a challenge, because things can change so much, and certainly in 2025 uncertainty has been one of the words of the year. I think sometimes these outlooks change based on new information. I'm not too surprised to see things slowing down a little bit even though businesses may still be optimistic. Maybe they see some of that optimism coming into play more in a few months than today.
Tell me a little bit about what you found out about New Mexico specifically, and how that compares to what you found in previous years about New Mexico.
It’s interesting that New Mexico was the second most optimistic state about business hiring—which is obviously really good for folks in New Mexico. Your neighbors in Arizona and over in Nevada were also among the highest. But most of the other most optimistic businesses were east of the Mississippi. New Mexico businesses were a little more optimistic than they were a couple of years ago when we also looked at this data. That's a positive sign, both for job hunters in New Mexico and the state as a whole.
I know that you also recognized a red state/blue state split in these numbers, but New Mexico was an outlier in that regard. Can you explain what you saw in that split and what you make of New Mexico not following the pattern?
It's no secret that most things today have a kind of a red/blue bent to them, or at least can. And we saw that in these business optimism numbers that 11 of the 12 states with the most optimistic outlooks for employee growth supported President Trump in the 2024 election, and 10 of the 12 least optimistic states supported Vice President Harris. Some of that might just have to do with the fact that business owners who support a certain candidate may be more likely to feel better when their candidate wins. It can be as simple as that. But it was interesting that that New Mexico, which was which was carried by Vice President Harris, was the second most optimistic state. And I don't have a great answer for why that that was the case, but it's certainly a positive thing.
Are there certain sectors that are more optimistic? I know we've seen some restaurants and breweries closing recently in Northern New Mexico.
Well, the least positive in terms of optimism was food services and accommodations, like hotels and motels. So that goes with what you were saying. And perhaps that stands to reason as prices go up, and maybe we're seeing fewer international travelers coming into the country and that sort of thing. But in terms of the positive side, health care was the sector where businesses said that they were most likely to be adding employees six months from now. That's something that is always going to be in demand, especially as our country ages. And in New Mexico, you have a large retirement community, and I would certainly think that that healthcare jobs would be in demand there as well.
Do you think it is the healthcare industry that's really driving these high optimism numbers in New Mexico?
It's never just one thing, but I would think that that would certainly be one of the chief reasons, along with agriculture and technology and that sort of thing. But I do think that the healthcare space is certainly playing a role in these numbers that we saw.
You mentioned agriculture and technology. Are those sectors also looking optimistic right now?
Well, interestingly enough, agriculture is the second least optimistic right behind food services and accommodation. But when you're looking at scientific and technical services, for example, that is the third most optimistic right behind finance and insurance. So, it runs the gamut a little bit there. This report just goes to show that the industry that you're in and where you live really are impactful when it comes to the job market. And it's such an incredibly competitive time. If there are things that you can do—whether it's being open to different industries or locations—those sorts of things can make a difference.
