How NPR makes race calls in the 2026 election
Voters are voting, ballots are being counted and results are starting to come in for 435 House races, 35 Senate races and 36 gubernatorial contests as well as ballot measures and thousands of state legislative seats. But how will NPR call races on election night? Determining a winner in any of the many races across the country is a big job. That's why NPR partners with the Associated Press — and has for many years — to ensure that races are called accurately.
The Associated Press has been calling races since 1848 and even now, nearly 180 years later, the process for making those calls is pretty simple. Here's how the AP explains its race calling process:
Race callers collaborate with analysts who focus on statewide races, such as those for U.S. Senate and governor, and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. The decision editors on AP's Decision Team sign off on every race call for president, U.S. Senate and governor, as well as races of significance for U.S. House.
Together, they are looking at far more than just the overall vote totals. They study the incoming vote county by county. In states where the information is available, they look at the vote by type of ballot: cast in person at polling places, or in advance by mail or in person. They are also in constant contact with AP's vote count team, in search of the latest information about what's been counted so far and how many ballots may still be left to count.
Once AP has an idea of how many ballots are outstanding versus how many have been counted, their staff can start to tabulate the likelihood of a certain winner being victorious in a certain contest based on a lot of different factors: where the ballots that are outstanding are coming from, what the makeup of those communities looks like and even, how the individual chose to vote.
For NPR's part, once the AP calls a race, we will alert our broadcast and digital audiences on air as part of special coverage and online through digital stories. We also ensure that our hundreds of member stations also have access to that information. We will use AP's data to populate our election results pages so viewers can keep track, in real time.
How are races called when not all votes have been counted?
But sometimes, races might be called without all — or even most — of the vote counted. How is that possible?
The Associated Press explained in 2024 that it uses that same calculation of ballots, external factors and other data to inform its decisions.
In almost all cases, races can be called well before 100% of the votes have been counted. The AP's team of election journalists and analysts will call a race as soon as a clear winner can be determined. That may sound obvious, but it is the guiding principle that drives the organization's election race-calling process.
The AP's race calls are not predictions and are not based on speculation. They are declarations based on an analysis of vote results and other election data that one candidate has emerged as the winner and that no other candidate in the race will be able to overtake the winner once all the votes have been counted.
It sounds simple, right? The AP won't call races until "a clear winner can be determined." But that doesn't always require all of the votes for every precinct for every race. Sometimes it's all about the math: can this candidate feasibly win with the votes outstanding in the places they are yet to be counted? And that raises another, really important point.
The AP – and therefore NPR – will not project races. The team at the AP will wait until it has certainty to call raises and that is why its race calls are trusted by hundreds of news organizations, including NPR. Because they wait until there is surety, even if it means waiting just a bit longer to be sure.
On an ethical note, NPR will not make race calls just because a candidate declares victory, nor will NPR use a concession speech or statement to make a race call either. That is true of the Associated Press as well:
AP does not make projections or name apparent or likely winners. If our race callers cannot definitively say a candidate has won, we do not engage in speculation. For example, AP did not call the closely contested race in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore – we stood behind our assessment that the margin in Florida made it too close to say who won.
AP only calls a race when we are fully confident that race has been won – defined most simply as the moment the trailing candidates no longer have a path to victory.
When AP makes a race call, we back it up with transparent reporting into the research and analysis that led us to say with certainty who has won. This explanatory journalism is as much a hallmark of our coverage of U.S. elections as the race calls themselves.
While election night is the start of these race calls, it likely will not be the end. Counting voters can take a while. Race calls will be tabulated to determine the balance of power in the Senate and the House of Representatives. NPR will cover all major race calls and provide ongoing coverage on air and online of just how the 2026 election shakes out.
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