With the 2026 midterms just days away, KSFR reporter Mary Lou Cooper asked pollster Brian Sanderoff to predict upcoming key races and issues. Brian is the president of Research and Polling, Inc. and is the pollster for the Albuquerque Journal and New Mexico’s ABC affiliate KOAT. Here are the highlights of their conversation.
Polls and Pollsters: Sanderoff acknowledges that some pollster criticism is justified—for example when in 2016 the polls underestimated Donald Trump. It turned out that if you underestimated less educated voters, you underestimated Trump. Sanderoff’s firm polls proven voters and voters with a history in analogous races. These polls involve telephone interviews with professional interviewers based in Albuquerque. He says it’s a more expensive method but more accurate than many national polls.
Sanderoff’s predictions on upcoming races (from polls in early weeks of October):
- Governor: Democrat Deb Haaland 49% vs. 42% Republican Greg Hull.
- Other statewide races like attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor and land commissioner. Democrats ahead by 9 to 15 points.
- U.S. Senate: Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Lujan 53%, Republican Larry Marker 37%.
- U.S. Congressional District 1 (most of Albuquerque and central NM): Incumbent Democrat Melanie Stansbury 53%, Republican Didi Okpareke 35%.
- U.S. Congressional District 2 (Las Cruces and a slice of Albuquerque); incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez 48%, Republican Greg Cunningham 44%.
- U.S. Congressional District 3 (northern NM and Santa Fe), incumbent Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez 53%, Republican Martin Zamora 39%.
Constitutional Ballot issue #4 to set state legislative salaries at est. $67,000 a year in contrast to current zero salary (based on August poll) 39% favored, 21% opposed, 40% were undecided and wanted more information.
State legislature: No dramatic change predicted. Democrats now firmly control the NM legislature. Each party would like to pick up 4-5 seats.
Party registration: Rounding off the numbers, 40% of New Mexico’s registered voters are Democrat; 31% are Republican; 28% Independent or unaffiliated. Registered D’s and R’s will vote at higher rates than unaffiliated voters. Unaffiliated voters vote at lesser rates partially because they are young and new to the game.
Top issues for New Mexico voters this midterm: Inflation is number one (cost of living, topped by cost of gas and diesel) followed by health care access, financial insecurity, crime, as well as concern about data centers.
