Elections 2026: Most Independents Lean R or D

According to the latest Gallup poll, 45 percent of U.S. adults identify as political independents, a record high. Only 27 percent of US adults identify as Democrats and 27 percent identify as Republicans. Furthermore, almost 60 percent of Americans give both parties unfavorable ratings, according to the PEW Research Center. Who are these independent voters? Will they affect outcome of the 2026 elections? KSFR turned to Professor Samara Klar at the University of Arizona School of Government for answers. Klar is the author and co-author of numerous books and articles on independent politics and political partisanship. Below is a recap of her interview with KSFR reporter Mary Lou Cooper.
Q Who are the independent voters of 2026?
A They don’t come from any specific demographic group. They’re young, old, previous D’s and R’s, liberals and conservatives. It’s hard for independent candidates to win because independent voters are diverse. Most independents have political preferences that align left or right, but they don’t identify with the partisanship characterizing American politics.
Q Are truly independent voters a myth or do they really lean R or D?
A book from political scientists in the early 1990s called “The Myth of the Independent Voter” found that independents usually do prefer one party over the other and consistently vote for one party over the other. The implication was that independents are just Republicans or Democrats in disguise. Klar’s research took it a step further to look at why people call themselves independents. She found that independents usually do favor one party, at least a little, but they don’t do a lot of the things that we need partisans to do—like put up yard signs, volunteer, or talk to friends and neighbors about who they’re voting for.
Q The recent Gallup poll said that only about 10 percent of the voting population are truly independents. Does that agree with your research?
Yes. Ten to 15% of voters at the most say they genuinely don’t prefer either party. But most independents say they usually vote for one party or the other. These “leaners” don’t want to be called partisans or wear the buttons or put the stickers on their cars. The “leaners” have grown exponentially over the last several decades.
Q Do people who say they’re independent voters actually vote or do they stay at home?
Independents are highly engaged voters. They look like weak partisans. They vote and have strong political preferences. They’re not always centrist or moderate. But they don’t announce their partisanship or work for parties. Klar’s view was that parties need people who will be more active. Some independents, Republicans and Democrats will stay at home this election. But while independents don’t vote as often as the strong partisans, they are a fairly engaged sector of the electorate. They usually support the same party in most elections, but they don’t want to be identified with the stigma of partisanship because it’s associated with so much fighting and hostility. Independents might prefer one party, but they don’t hate the other party.
Q With more and more voters identifying as independent, what will the impact be on upcoming midterm elections?
We have a lot of very tight races coming up. American politics right now is so closely divided that many high-profile races are won by small margins. Independent voters make it more difficult to predict the outcome of elections. And they make it harder for candidates to understand where the voters stand and adapt their platforms accordingly.
Q Do party loyalists still determine election outcomes or are independents the most important sector in 2026 elections?
Given how close the races are, you could call any group the most important factor. But Klar believes independents are having an outsized impact on elections.