Election 2024: Do negative campaign ads work?
As election 2024 approaches, KSFR features reporter Mary Lou Cooper talked with political ad tracker Michael Franz about negative political ads. Franz is a professor of government at Bowdoin College and co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. He’s studied TV political ads in federal and gubernatorial races for more than 20 years. Here’s what we learned:
1. What are negative political ads? Ads that mention just your opponent are defined as negative. Positive ads primarily mention just yourself. Contrast ads mention both candidates.
2. Why are negative ads so popular when voters say they hate them? Franz says that research shows that negative political ads typically are no more effective than positive ads. But consultants and campaign managers don’t always believe the research and run negative political ads anyway.
3. Are negative political ads more effective in extremely tight races? Franz says yes. When the margins are extremely close—almost 50-50--negative ads can generate support from a very small slice of voters who truly have not yet decided on a candidate. Negative ads in these races also serve to get out the vote of a candidate’s supporters.
4. Are negative political ads an equal opportunity sport used by both parties? Overall, the answer is yes according to Franz. However, it depends on the year and the race. In 2024, Republican ads for U.S. Senate candidates are more negative than their counterparts because the R’s hope to win back the Senate. Likewise in U.S. House races, Democratic ads are more negative as they try to retake the House. Trump’s ads are mostly negative, while Harris’s ads also promote herself and draw a contrast with the former president.
5. Do negative political ads cause political polarization in U.S. politics? Franz says they don’t cause it, but they can aggravate it. He notes that there is little evidence that negative political ads suppress voter turnout.
6. Are negative political ads that are also false regulated? No. Such ads are generally considered free speech, and voters themselves must be vigilant, especially when people get their news from many non-traditional sources.
To illustrate negative political advertising in the 2024 election cycle, this story includes two TV ads for candidates for New Mexico’s 2nd congressional district.